The Rightful Place of Science Disasters and Climate Change Roger A Pielke Jr 9780692297513 Books
Download As PDF : The Rightful Place of Science Disasters and Climate Change Roger A Pielke Jr 9780692297513 Books
In recent years the media, politicians, and activists have popularized the notion that climate change has made disasters worse. But what does the science actually say? Roger Pielke, Jr. takes a close look at the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the underlying scientific research, and the data to give you the latest science on disasters and climate change. What he finds may surprise you and raise questions about the role of science in political debates.
The Rightful Place of Science is a book series published by Arizona State University's Consortium for Science, Policy & Outcomes, and edited by G. Pascal Zachary. The series explores the complex interactions among science, technology, politics, and the human condition.
The Rightful Place of Science Disasters and Climate Change Roger A Pielke Jr 9780692297513 Books
I read book. Pielke is acknowledged climate expert. Book is focused on whether Humancaused global warming - a given in the book - is causing an increase in natural disasters.
His conclusion and the conclusion of the peer reviewed world is that it cannot
be proven that AGW causes increases in natural disasters. There is no confidence level above 50%
where humans are causing an increase in natural disaster. Furthermore, he states
it is not clear there is any change in the frequency or severity of natural disasters. A must
read for warmers and deniers.
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The Rightful Place of Science Disasters and Climate Change Roger A Pielke Jr 9780692297513 Books Reviews
This is a well written short review of an important question. It's written by a man who has spent his life studying the question, and who has a good and fair understanding of it. He sets out the context well before defining the exact question he can answer by scientific means (by means of reasonably accurate measurements, and awareness of their strengths and limitations.) He's writing against scientists, advocates and politicians who are overstating the science, and going beyond the evidence. He sees that "In recent years advocates for action on climate change have enlisted disasters as a leading theme of advocacy campaigns... A turn to this strategy has occurred despite a broad consensus in the scientific literature that the evidence for connections between climate change and disasters is incredibly weak." He considers one of Barack Obama's speeches in 2013 and says of it, "I knew that several (but not all) of the claims he made were just plain wrong- they were not supported by the state of the research. In fact, some were contradicted by that research." He also records "My surprise was that my colleagues were asking me to downplay and to even misrepresent my own research because it was being viewed as inconvenient in the advocacy effort on climate change." Considering another context where information was being misused he quotes Robin Cook on the lead up to the Iraq War, "Instead of using intelligence as evidence on which to make a decision about policy, we used intelligence as the basis on which to justify a policy on which we had already settled." and John Kay, "Whatever initial misconceptions spin doctors may promote, reality will out."
Pierce is writing this book to correct a misconception- one that has gone round the world whilst the truth is getting it boots on.
The specific question he asks is, "Have disasters become more costly because of human-caused climate change?" He describes the information and dat he uses to answer this question. He uses data on weather events and records of insurance company payments and uses them to see if the patterns match or not. His conclusion is that,
"All we can say is that the record of disaster losses is fully explainable by changes in society. There is at present no evidence that human caused climate change is responsible for any part of the global increase in disaster costs. We cannot say there is no such influence.
But as I have explained on many occasions, from a practical standpoint a signal that may exist, but which cannot be detected, is indistinguishable from a signal that does not exist...
Science is concerned with evidence, not with supporting pre-existing beliefs."
The main meat of the book provides plenty of evidence from many recorded and referenced sources to support its negative answer to its main question.
This is a good book showing well how to use scientific evidence to answer a well defined question. He also rightly warns against, "But efforts to intensify public opinion through apocalyptic visions of weather-gone-wild or appeals to scientific authority, instead of motivating further support for action, have instead led to a loss of trust in campaigning scientists."
He concludes, "But the false link between disasters and climate change also distracts us from the many politically pragmatic and economically sensible justifications for accelerating the transition to clean cheap energy."
This book brings a clear scientific eye to a large amount of evidence and shows us how it looks, and where we should be looking for answers that might help people. The noise elsewhere is a distraction from clear thought. We owe Roger Pielke a debt of gratitude for taking the risk to provide us with this clear account.
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This analysis, by looking at actual data, not model predictions, shows that the warming that has occurred has not brought any increase in severe weather events, contrary to the claims of many proponents of controlling CO2 emissions. My only criticism is that the author, without analyzing any actual data, professes to believe that the warming that has occurred in the last 150 years is attributable to increased CO2 in the atmosphere and that the increase is man caused. That belief therefore must be based on climate model projections despite the obvious statistical evidence that the models significantly overstate the effect of CO2 in the atmosphere on average temperature and are wrong about predicting higher temperatures at the poles and a hot spot over the equator, neither of which show in the satellite measures of actual atmospheric temperatures. Still, the book is a must read for anyone concerned about possible effects of warming on severe weather events.
The Rightful Place of Science Disasters and Climate Change (2014) by Roger Pielke Jnr provides an excellent overview of the scientific consensus on extreme weather events and climate change. It also provides an interesting examination of what happens when you put forward the majority view in an area where the science is contested.
Pielke Jnr is an expert on the use of science in politics and on disasters and climate change. He's been involved with the IPCC in a number of their reports. He also says something that many climate activists do not want to hear, which is the IPCC view that extreme weather costs have not increased due to climate change. Costs have gone up due to more people living by coastlines and increasing value of housing, but as, the IPCC Special Report on Extreme Weather states
Long-term trends in economic disaster losses adjusted for wealth and population increases have not been attributed to climate change, but a role for climate has not been excluded.
While climate change may, in future, lead to a signal in extreme weather events at this point according to the consensus it has not. This point is something that is made in more detail in the book.
Pielke Jnr goes into detail about how writing about this point led to political pressure being applied to stop him writing for the statistically inclined 538 website. He also says how climate scientists have told him not to make this point because it isn't helpful even if it is true.
The book also extends into points about the Kaya Identity and the failure of 20 years of climate activism to reduce C02 emissions. He describes the immense challenge of decarbonizing the economy and the requirement that to meet targets for 2050 the world would require one nuclear power station per day or equivalent. The points made in this section are those made by the Breakthrough Institute.
It's an excellent, short, crisp book on climate change that describes the consensus science and provides extensive examples of what is said on this aspect of climate change.
This book should be on the reading list of anyone wishing to comment on climate change - puts things into perspective in a sensible readable fashion.
Mr. Pielke makes clear that we are being bamboozled on what is really happening in the climate change market place. Pseudo science is being fobbed of on us in the name of global warming.
I read book. Pielke is acknowledged climate expert. Book is focused on whether Human
caused global warming - a given in the book - is causing an increase in natural disasters.
His conclusion and the conclusion of the peer reviewed world is that it cannot
be proven that AGW causes increases in natural disasters. There is no confidence level above 50%
where humans are causing an increase in natural disaster. Furthermore, he states
it is not clear there is any change in the frequency or severity of natural disasters. A must
read for warmers and deniers.
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